Mixed martial arts (MMA) is a combat sport that incorporates elements of boxing, kickboxing, wrestling, Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and other forms of fighting and grappling. The MMA term was coined shortly after the first Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) event in 1993. It’s also commonly known as cage fighting and ultimate fighting.
Initially, MMA had few rules and struggled to gain traction in the 1990s and early 2000s. In 2001, the sport began being regulated by state athletic commissions, similar to boxing. By 2009, the Association of Boxing Commissions voted unanimously to adopt the “Unified Rules of Mixed Martial Arts“. Increased UFC event promotion helped the sport reach new heights, surpassing the popularity of all but the biggest boxing events.
MMA and boxing have some important similarities and differences. UFC events take place in eight-sided rings with cage walls called “the Octagon.” MMA can also be contested in circular cages or traditional rings.
Like boxing, MMA has official weight classes. Three judges score each MMA round on the 10-point must system. Unlike boxing, most MMA fights are just three rounds, with championship fights and some main-event attractions going five rounds. Also, MMA rounds are five minutes in length versus 3 minutes each for boxing. Fighters are barefoot and wear smaller gloves compared to boxers.
Finally, MMA fights can end via knockout, technical knockout (TKO), submission, or referee stoppage. If the fight goes the distance, the judges’ scorecards are used to determine a winner.
The UFC is a sport that revolves around gambling. The biggest UFC events are held in Las Vegas. It’s believed around $210 million is wagered in the United States each year on mixed martial arts fights. The UFC holds monthly pay-per-view events and two to three smaller events that are televised on ESPN or ESPN+. There are smaller MMA promotions around the world as well.
UFC/MMA
League Markets|
Game |
 BetMGMBet |
|---|---|
Eryk Anders
Chris Weidman
12/07/24 6:00pm EST - UFC | |
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | +210-275 |
Joshua Van
Cody Durden
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | -165+135 |
Dominick Reyes
Anthony Smith
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | -350+270 |
| BetMGM | |
Themba Gorimbo
Vicente Luque
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | -165+140 |
Doo Ho Choi
Nate Landwehr
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | +125-150 |
Chase Hooper
Clay Guida
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | -1100+675 |
Max Griffin
Michael Chiesa
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | -145+120 |
| BetMGM | |
Bryan Battle
Randy Brown
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | -200+165 |
Ian Garry
Shavkat Rakhmonov
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | +290-375 |
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Belal Muhammad
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | -210+175 |
Kai Asakura
Alexandre Pantoja
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | +210-275 |
| BetMGM | |
Nick Diaz
Vicente Luque
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | +450-650 |
Alexander Volkov
Ciryl Gane
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | +275-350 |
Kron Gracie
Bryce Mitchell
12/08/24 5:00pm EST - UFC 310 | +400-550 |
Joaquin Buckley
Colby Covington
12/14/24 7:00pm EST - UFC Fight Night | -210+170 |
| BetMGM | |
Joel Alvarez
Drakkar Klose
12/14/24 7:00pm EST - UFC | |
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Miranda Maverick
12/14/24 7:00pm EST - UFC | |
Josefine Knutsson
Piera Rodriguez
12/14/24 7:00pm EST - UFC | |
Tuco Tokkos
Navajo Stirling
12/14/24 7:00pm EST - UFC | |
| BetMGM | |
Ottman Azaitar
Michael Johnson
12/14/24 10:00pm EST - UFC | |
Adrian Yanez
Daniel Marcos
12/14/24 10:00pm EST - UFC | |
Mackenzie Dern
Amanda Ribas
12/14/24 10:00pm EST - UFC | |
Billy Quarantillo
Cub Swanson
12/14/24 10:00pm EST - UFC |
How to Read Sports Betting Odds Video
Table of Contents
MMA Bets
The easiest MMA bet is a straight-up wager on someone to win the fight. But there are also a number of secondary wagers available to give bettors some variety.
Moneyline Bet
Betting the moneyline means you’re choosing which fighter will win. The fighter’s victory method doesn’t matter.
Oddsmakers will determine a favorite and an underdog. The favorite will be designated with a minus sign. The underdog will have a plus sign.
Moneyline Bet Example
UFC 257 – Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
Dustin Poirier +205
Conor McGregor -305
In this fight, Conor McGregor was quite a large favorite at -305. That means you would have to bet $305 on McGregor to win $100 if he got his hand raised.
On the other side, betting on an underdog means that you risk less to win more. For Poirier, you would have to bet $100 in order to win $205. You’ll make more on a Poirer bet if he pulls off the upset.
While Poirier was a 2:1 underdog here, there have been far greater underdogs in UFC history who won their fight. Two of the more famous ones were Julianna Pena (+775) submitting Amanda Nunes at UFC 269. Also, Matt Serra (+700) defeated Georges Saint-Pierre at UFC 69 by TKO (punches).
UFC/MMA Odds Example
|
Game |
BetMGM Bet |
|---|---|
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev
UFC 310 - 12/08/24 5:00pm EST | +210-275 |
- Aljamain Sterling bettors risk $100 to win $210 at +210 odds. The implied probability for Aljamain Sterling is 32.26%.
- Movsar Evloev bettors risk $100 to win $36.36 at -275 odds. The implied probability for Movsar Evloev is 73.33%.
Round Totals (Over-Under)
Decide whether the fight will go over or under the sportsbook’s round total line. In MMA the round total represents elapsed or completed rounds as time.
A Half Round is the First 2:30 of the Next Round
A whole round is 5 minutes. A half round is 2 minutes and 30 seconds. Any half-round total represents the first 2:30 of the round following the previous whole round.
For example, a 2.5 round total means 2 whole rounds plus 2:30 of round 3. If the fight ends on or before round 3 at 2:29, the under wins. If the fight ends round 3 at 2:31 or after, including a decision, the over wins.
MMA total round bets can push if the fight ends exactly on the total line. Consider again a 2.5 round total. If the fight ends exactly at 2:30 of round 3, all total bets would push. This is highly unlikely to happen.
Similarly, a 4.5 round total means 4 whole rounds plus 2:30 of the final round 5. If the fight ends on or before round 5 at 2:29, the under wins. If the fight ends round 5 at 2:31 or after, including a decision, the over wins.
Note that a 2.5 round line does not mean halfway through the second round! Always think of completed rounds + time. Therefore a 2.5 line means 2 complete rounds plus 2:30 of round 3.
Round Total Bet Example
UFC 278 Kamaru Usman vs Leon Edwards Main Event
Kamaru Usman 4.5 o -160
Leon Edwards 4.5 u +135
Oddsmakers thought the fight would most likely go to a decision at the end of five rounds. That’s why the over was the likely outcome. Over bettors risked $160 to win $100. If the fight ended from the 2:31 mark of the 5th round or later, over bettors would win.
The under was considered less likely. Under bettors risked $100 to win $135. If the fight ended on or before the 2:29 mark of the 5th round, under bettors would win.
Most people who bet the over likely thought the fight would go to the decision after five full rounds. But Edwards actually knocked out Usman with a head kick at 4:04 into the fifth round, making the over the winner in this fight.
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Type of Victory
Bet on the winning fighter’s method of victory. Choose one of three possible results: KO/TKO, Submission, or Decision.
Each result will almost always have a plus sign. The number indicates how much you win for risking $100. For example, Jon Jones by Submission +600 means you risk $100 to $600.
If Jones wins the fight by submission, you win. If he loses the fight or wins by any other method, you lose.
Consider this bet when you have a strong feeling who will win and how the fight will end. Type of Victory bets are riskier than a moneyline bet. They also payout much more than just picking the outright winner.
Type of Victory Bet Example
UFC 279 Nate Diaz vs.Tony Ferguson Main Event
| Nate Diaz Type of Victory | Odds |
|---|---|
|
TKO/KO
|
+500
|
|
Submission
|
+550
|
|
Decision
|
+330
|
| Tony Ferguson Type of Victory | Odds |
|---|---|
|
TKO/KO
|
+390
|
|
Submission
|
+1600
|
|
Decision
|
+195
|
Oddsmakers take the fighter’s overall chances into account as well as their preferred style of fighting.
Ferguson, for example, was the underdog going into this fight. But because he shows more knockout power, a KO or TKO win by Ferguson has shorter odds than Diaz winning by that method. Ferguson is also not a fighter who goes for submissions, so that result has the longest odds.
For reference, Diaz won this fight via submission. A $100 bet would’ve paid out $550 in winnings. You can see how taking one or two shots at a fight result bet can lead to a handsome payoff.
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MMA Major Betting Events
UFC Numbered Events
The biggest events in MMA are the UFC numbered events, which are held in large arenas and stadiums around the world. They are usually available on pay-per-view. UFC’s current deal in the U.S. is with the ESPN+ streaming service. Each numbered UFC event is a separate charge.
There is typically one numbered UFC event per month. Each event will feature championship bouts or feature attractions with top fighters like Conor McGregor. In September 2022, the promotion held UFC 279 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Tournaments in Other Promotions
There are other MMA leagues around the world. The most popular among those is Bellator. Bellator features up-and-coming fighters mixed with some former UFC stars. It has a national television deal in the U.S. through Showtime.
Bellator occasionally holds tournaments to determine championship contenders in different weight classes. From a betting perspective you’re able to wager on the winner of individual fights along with the champion of the tournament itself.
Other current promotions include the Pro Fight League, the all women’s Invicta MMA league, and ONE Championship in Asia. Popular organizations from the past include Pride, Strikeforce, and World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) – all three of which were purchased and merged into UFC.
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When to Bet on MMA Fights
While odds will appear for big fights months in advance, most of the card for an MMA show will have lines set in the week or two before the event.
While the odds are available early, there is a lot of information you can glean from waiting until closer to fight night. Specifically, you should wait until the fighters weigh in for their bouts, which takes place the day before the event.
Watch the Weight-Cutting
In general, fighters will drop a good amount of weight to be able to reach the target weight of their weight class. Afterwards they’ll put some pounds back on between the time of the weigh-in and when they step into the cage.
Sometimes, this weight-cutting process doesn’t go well for fighters. They may have overestimated how much weight they have to lose and can get dehydrated, which can lead to a loss of strength for the fight the next day. If you can identify fighters who have a rough weight cut, that can give you an advantage when placing a wager, so placing your bet after this information is available is the best strategy.
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MMA Betting Handicapping Strategies
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Don’t Buy Into the Hype
Remember that combat sports were built on selling a fight to the public, whether that’s through tickets to the arena or pay-per-view buys on television. You’re going to be told that the aging veteran has a chance against the up-and-comer. Lots of energy will be spent building a sentimental favorite or trying to convince you that a heavy underdog has a chance. So you’ll want to buy the fight.
Of course, underdogs do win. Consider the above examples with Julianna Pena and Matt Serra. Also recall that Holly Holm was a major underdog in a stunning knockout of then-unbeaten Ronda Rousey in UFC 193.
Use data to determine if an underdog has a chance to win. Don’t let the hype or your heart influence your betting decisions.
Become an Expert in a Division or Two
When taking both male and female fighters into account, there are 12 weight classes in the UFC. That’s a lot of fighters to keep track of! The more information you’re armed with, the better.
Pick a couple of divisions you enjoy watching and really hone in on the fighters. Watch each fight carefully, including those further down the card. Note each fighter’s strengths and weaknesses, method of victory, conditioning, and recent results.
Learn about each fighter’s training and background. One factor to watch is a fighter’s age. Across all divisions, when fighters are five years apart or more, the younger fighter won 61% of the time. That number jumps to 64% when there’s at least a 10-year age gap.
Oddsmakers pay less attention to preliminary fights vs. main event bouts. Use your knowledge to find value on the undercard. Look for mispriced matchups and potential underdog upsets.
Know How to Maximize Bets on Underdogs and Favorites
One of the best ways to get value on heavy favorites is by creating a parlay. If a fighter is at -550, you would have to bet $550 to win $100. That’s a heavy price to pay. By the nature of MMA, any fight can end in an upset with a well-placed punch or kick.
But if you’re confident in three heavy favorites, you can risk a lot less for the same payout. If you feel confident that fighters with odds of -550, -700, and -500 are going to win, you can make a $160 parlay. That means each fighter must win their fight for you to win $100.
On the underdog side, long-term statistics show there’s a good return on investment for slight underdogs. From 2014-21 UFC fighters coming in between +122 and +159 have a win rate of 45%. Between +150 and +186, the win rate drops slightly to 41%. But getting close to 2:1 odds on some of these matchups means that you don’t have to win more than 50% of the time to turn a profit.
Underdog Bets Payoff in the Long-Run
In fact, if you bet on every underdog from 2014-21 who fell between +122 and +186, your return on investment would be around 3.3%. That means if you bet a total of $100 on every instance, you would have $103.30 at the end.
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MMA/UFC Odds FAQs
MMA, mixed-martial arts, is the name of the sport itself, while UFC (Ultimate Fighting Championship) is the most prestigious league for MMA fighters to participate in.
Both combat sports are contested in rounds and are judged based on the 10-point must system. This means that the winner of the round is given 10 points, while the loser typically gets 9 (or 8 if the round is one-sided).
While fighters in both sports can win by knockout or technical knockout, only MMA competitors can win via submission. MMA fights are also either 3 or 5 rounds, whereas boxing matches can go from 8 to 12 rounds.
Oddsmakers will set moneyline odds on who they consider to be the favorite and the underdog in the fight. Betting on the winner of the fight is the most popular bet.
If you’re looking for a larger payout, try to bet on the type of victory. In this bet, you choose the winner along with the method of victory (KO, submission, decision). Since you have to predict two outcomes, the odds will be greater on each wager.
While odds may come out weeks before a fight, you get the most information on a competitor the day before the bout at the weigh-ins. If a fighter has had a difficult weight cut, that could negatively affect their performance in the cage.
MMA Betting Resources
- MMA Betting Guide – Learn how to bet on the MMA with moneylines, round totals, and type of victory bets, among exotic bets like MMA parlays and prop bets.
- MMA Betting Sites – Dig into our list of the best licensed and legal US MMA betting sites before the action in the octagon begins.
- MMA Betting Odds – Latest MMA betting odds for upcoming matchups, including UFC Fight Nights, Numbered Events, and other major events around the world.
- MMA Betting Strategies – Dive into MMA betting with our helpful guide that explains how to handicap MMA fights. Learn how to find an edge and beat the sportsbooks when your favorite fighter enters The Cctagon.
- Nick “The Goat” Thompson – Our fan page dedicated to Nick Thompson, one of the greatest fighters of the mid to late 2000s.