Anyone who follows soccer knows that there’s one person more nervous about the outcome of a game than you, the fan. And that’s the manager. Win or lose, the outcome is laid squarely at the feet of the manager. And when those losses start to pile up, so does the pressure.
Let’s face it – if a striker doesn’t score in 6 games, not much is done. If a goalie doesn’t keep a clean sheet for 6 matches, everyone shrugs and hopes for the best next time. Of course, when the trend suddenly changes, the striker and goalie are both celebrated once again. However, if a manager loses 6 games in a row, now their job is on the line.
But does dropping the old manager and hiring a new one actually have the desired effect?
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The New Manager Bounce
The fact that the term “New Manager Bounce” exists gives credence to this well documented trend. A new manager will cause sportsbooks to reassess the odds a team will win their next game, ultimately making them less of an underdog, or in some cases an outright favorite. And that’s because of the “New Manager Bounce” phenomenon, a factor UK bookmakers consider when setting odds for upcoming EPL matchups, along with their US betting counterparts.
For example, let’s look at the 2024 Liverpool squad. Jurgen Klopp was loved by the players and the fans. With him at the helm, they won the Champions League – and even the EPL for the first time in 20 years.
However, it’s also fair to say that during his last few seasons at the club, things were a little rockier – and they didn’t even make the top 4 in the 2022-23 season. While he wasn’t sacked, he ultimately caved to the immense pressure to resign. It was time for someone new. And then came Arne Slot.
Practically everyone was nervous about it. Almost all Liverpool fans were sad to see Klopp go, but, they were undoubtedly happy with “the Bounce” the team has since enjoyed under Slot. Having only been beaten once so far in the 24/25 campaign, they are currently at the top of the Premier League table and the Champions League table. Things are, thus far, looking good for the Reds!
Current and Past Liverpool Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Champions League | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 36 |
When Things Go Wrong
But, let’s be honest, there’s always an exception to the rule, Man U being a prime example. Alex Ferguson left a club that was arguably the best in the world. Given the number of new managers they’ve had since, they should have seen some upside.
Unfortunately, that’s not been the case. Since Ferguson left in 2013, they’ve had 10 new managers…practically a new one each year. And let’s face it, they haven’t really exceeded mediocrity ever since. Sure, they’ve won some silverware – particularly in the 2 years where Mourinho was in charge. But nothing substantial beyond that.
That raises the question: should new managers actually be given a fighting chance before sacking them? And when is it the right time to call it a day?
When is Enough, Enough?
There’s a fine line between knowing when to give them a chance and when their time is done. Arsenal kept hanging on to Arsene Wenger for years, long after many of the Gunners’ fans felt he should have been fired. They were right. With Arteta at the reins, they’ve done a lot better.
Sadly, we also have to put Pep Guardiola under the spotlight. He’s done phenomenal things with Man City since he’s been there. Although some might quibble that loose purse strings may have helped, the Cityzens have been an unstoppable force under his leadership.
Now, however, Man City is barely clinging to 4th place in the EPL. And they’re way down in 22nd spot in the Champions League table – a competition they won in 2023. And Pep? Well, now he’s literally scratching his face off from the stress, and the fans are starting to sour. How long do they give him to turn things around?
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Is Second Place Good Enough?
However, there’s an even trickier dilemma. What if the manager does well with the team but not quite enough to get them to the top? Soccer is about winning – it’s about getting the silverware, not about finishing runner-up or worse.
Let’s take Pochettino’s tenure with Tottenham. He was a decent manager – and they certainly enjoyed a nice bounce with him… as he gave them their highest Premier League place ever. Plus, he got them into the Champions League. But he never got them a win. Plenty of seconds and thirds, but never a first-place finish.
Then, when he went to Chelsea, he also failed to get them a win. Despite his apparent skills, he never lasted at either team. Now he’s head coach of the US Men’s National team, hoping to put together a winning campaign to reclaim his reputation.
Will the US Enjoy New Manager Bounce with Pochettino?
Pochettino has had a huge amount of experience in top-flight soccer – and even enjoyed success with Paris Saint Germain. But how will he fare at the helm of the US National Team? Sure, he helped the team win its first game against Panama, but they failed to defeat Mexico and other key CONCACAF opponents. At this point, we’re still on the fence.
To date, we’re not convinced that there’s a bounce or benefit happening yet – but how long do we give him before trying something new? US men’s soccer definitely needs a boost – but is Pochettino the man to bring it? Perhaps it’s best to give him a fair chance before throwing in the Pochettino towel prematurely.
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