Everyone waiting for a window to take the crown from Bayern Munich may be disappointed. The 10-time defending champions of Germany football are once again poised to repeat as champions, despite losing top scorer Robert Lewandowski to the transfer market.
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One thing that should make German football fans happy is the transfer window didn’t see players flee the league. Many expected Christopher Nkunku, who plays for Leipzig to look other places, but he extended with the club until 2026.
With the league schedule starting this weekend, let’s take a look at where the value lies for anyone to challenge Bayern for the championship this year.
How is Bayern still so good?
Despite losing Lewandowski to FC Barcelona in La Liga, Bayern Munich are still -500 to win its 11th straight Bundesliga crown. A large part of the reason is how effectively Bayern hit the transfer market. The big prize was luring Sergio Mane from the EPL.
During last year’s run to the title, Bayern Munich piled up 97 goals and won the league by 13 points over Leipzig. There is some thought this team’s attack will be more diversified than the Lewandowski-dominant approach it featured last season.
Bayern will also really on a $67 million signing in Matthijs de Ligt as well as academy players Ryan Gravenberch and Noussair Mazraoui. There is no value in betting on Bayern to win the league, but keeping an eye on them to continue pile up goals will be a sturdy bet throughout the year.
Dortmund sells top player
Borussia Dortmund reinstated Edin Terzic as head coach. Dortmund finished second in the league last season by going 22-3-9 (win-draw-loss). One of Dortmund’s most pressing challenges will be replacing Erling Haaland, who scored 22 matches and handed out seven assists in 24 Bundesliga matches last season.
Haaland left for Manchester City in the EPL during the transfer window. An unfortunate circumstance will keep one of Haaland’s potential replacements out of the lineup. Sebastian Haller, who Dortmund signed from Ajax, will be out for several months due to treatment for a malignant tumor.
The Black and Yellow will need to find a way to keep pace with rival Bayern. Dortmund is given a +800 odds to win the league.
Leipzig looks to figure things out
Leipzig, which is +1200 to win the league, were able to find fourth in the Bundesliga last year thanks to its stout defense. The Red Bulls only allowed 37 goals in 34 games. What Leipzig will need to figure out is how to score more themselves.
During last season, Leipzig scored 72 goals, which was the lowest of any of the teams that finished in the top four. Where the Red Bulls need to find another finisher is in the final third, where Leipzig has relied heavily on Nkunku.
Injury keeps top player around
Bayer Leverkusen will be spurred on by 19-year-old Florian Wirtz. Wirtz decided not to hit the transfer market quickly as he is recovering from an injury. Leverkusen will be happy to have him back.
Last season, Bayer saw Wirtz score seven goals and contribute 10 assists. Leverkusen is +2500 to win the league. Bayer showed it had plenty of offensive spark last season, scoring 80 goals and finished with a +33 goal differential.
If Leverkusen can maintain its offensive level and Wirtz comes back in a reasonable amount of time, they could be a fun longshot to play.