Imagine you could determine which NFL teams would make the playoffs? Such knowledge would produce numerous profitable betting opportunities. Super Bowl and conference futures bets would be easy winners. Luckily, SportsBetting3.com has research which stats predict whether an NFL will team the playoffs.
The following is adapted from a case study featuring the Kansas City Chiefs. For comparison purposes, we also looked at the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, and Indianapolis Colts. The Cleveland Browns, who’ve experience years of failed playoff attempts, were the control team. Dig in below and make some money this NFL season!
| Bonus | |
|---|---|
 #1 BetMGMREVIEW | New Customers - Up to $1500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days One new customer offer/Add'l Terms Bet Now 21+ Playable in Ohio only Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-589-9966 |
Case Study: How the Kansas City Chiefs Made the Playoffs 2003-Present
We reviewed key Kansas City regular season stats for each year they made the playoffs, 2003-present. We also tabulated numbers for the 49ers and Colts.
New England made the playoffs every year except 2008 in our 2003-present sample. Meanwhile, Cleveland has the longest playoff drought in NFL history. They haven’t made the postseason since 2002. Cleveland’s stats from 2003 onward effectively demonstrate how a team does not make the playoffs. The Raiders have a similar track record, save one playoff appearance in 2016.
Each team’s overall averages are displayed below. Separate tables containing each team’s regular season stats follow. Numbers for the Cleveland Browns are provided as a control group.
Stats that Predict Playoff Appearances
Kansas City makes the playoffs if their regular season is above their playoff year averages. In our estimation, the most predictive stats are possession time greater than 30 minutes, a 97 QB rating or better, 5700 offensive yards or better, and at least 50 touchdowns.
Note also an average of 327 1st downs in the regular season. Most of the totals cluster closely around 300. The Kansas City Chiefs must consistently advance the ball to win games!
For the record, the New England Patriots’ averages exceed these numbers. That suggests a range of high end performance – well above the lowly Cleveland Browns and Raiders – guarantees a crack at the Super Bowl.
Key Overall Stats Averages
Select Regular Season Averages, Playoff Teams vs. Drought Teams 2003-Present
| Year | Poss. Time | QB Rating | Off. Yds | TDs | 1st Downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs Playoffs (13) Averages | 105.9 | 5982 | 50 | 348 | |
| Colts Playoffs (13) Averages | 102.3 | 5941 | 50 | 356 | |
| 49ers Playoffs (7) Averages | 129.2 | 5909 | 48 | 331 | |
| Raiders Drought (1) Averages | 93.5 | 5190 | 34 | 289 |
Key Stats for Consistent Playoff Contenders
Chiefs 2003-Present Playoff Appearances - Key Season Stats
| Year | Poss. Time | QB Rating | Off. Yds | TDs | 1st Downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 105.9 | 5982 | 50 | 348 | |
| 2023 | 122.9 | 5972 | 39 | 350 | |
| 2022 | 105.2 | 7032 | 61 | 408 | |
| 2021 | 118.8 | 6746 | 55 | 419 | |
| 2020 | 118.8 | 6653 | 57 | 397 | |
| 2019 | 105.3 | 6067 | 48 | 350 | |
| 2018 | 113.8 | 6810 | 70 | 384 | |
| 2017 | 104.7 | 6007 | 39 | 322 | |
| 2016 | 118.8 | 5488 | 41 | 305 | |
| 2015 | 95.4 | 5299 | 43 | 303 | |
| 2013 | 89.1 | 5050 | 50 | 303 | |
| 2010 | 93.0 | 5595 | 44 | 319 | |
| 2006 | 98.0 | 5143 | 37 | 310 | |
| 2003 | 92.6 | 5910 | 63 | 348 |
Colts 2003-Present Playoff Appearances - Key Season Stats
| Year | Poss. Time | QB Rating | Off. Yds | TDs | 1st Downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 102.3 | 5941 | 50 | 356 | |
| 2020 | 97.0 | 6049 | 50 | 364 | |
| 2018 | 98.7 | 6179 | 52 | 371 | |
| 2014 | 102.6 | 6506 | 52 | 371 | |
| 2013 | 87.0 | 5468 | 40 | 318 | |
| 2012 | 76.5 | 5799 | 40 | 360 | |
| 2010 | 91.9 | 6092 | 50 | 366 | |
| 2009 | 158.3 | 5809 | 53 | 339 | |
| 2008 | 95.0 | 5368 | 42 | 321 | |
| 2007 | 98.0 | 5739 | 53 | 357 | |
| 2006 | 101.0 | 6070 | 49 | 376 | |
| 2005 | 104.1 | 5799 | 51 | 363 | |
| 2004 | 121.1 | 6475 | 65 | 379 | |
| 2003 | 99.0 | 5874 | 47 | 348 |
49ers 2003-Present Playoff Appearances - Key Season Stats
| Year | Poss. Time | QB Rating | Off. Yds | TDs | 1st Downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 129.2 | 5909 | 48 | 331 | |
| 2023 | 113.0 | 6773 | 61 | 383 | |
| 2022 | 158.3 | 6216 | 52 | 347 | |
| 2021 | 133.3 | 6337 | 50 | 361 | |
| 2019 | 118.8 | 6097 | 54 | 336 | |
| 2013 | 118.8 | 5180 | 41 | 286 | |
| 2012 | 104.1 | 5789 | 42 | 322 | |
| 2011 | 158.3 | 4974 | 35 | 282 |
Raiders 2003-Present Playoff Drought - Key Season Stats (Except: 2016)
| Year | Poss. Time | QB Rating | Off. Yds | TDs | 1st Downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 93.4 | 5200 | 33 | 290 | |
| 2023 | 113.9 | 4922 | 36 | 292 | |
| 2022 | 118.8 | 5993 | 41 | 343 | |
| 2021 | 94.0 | 6184 | 37 | 349 | |
| 2020 | 118.8 | 6133 | 48 | 359 | |
| 2019 | 5819 | 37 | 315 | ||
| 2018 | 93.9 | 5379 | 30 | 300 | |
| 2017 | 86.4 | 5185 | 36 | 287 | |
| 2015 | 91.1 | 5336 | 42 | 300 | |
| 2014 | 76.6 | 4515 | 27 | 248 | |
| 2013 | 158.3 | 5340 | 35 | 275 | |
| 2012 | 85.2 | 5504 | 28 | 300 | |
| 2011 | 118.1 | 6072 | 37 | 328 | |
| 2010 | 84.5 | 5674 | 43 | 306 | |
| 2009 | 80.6 | 4258 | 17 | 234 | |
| 2008 | 77.1 | 4356 | 27 | 225 | |
| 2007 | 78.0 | 4717 | 30 | 267 | |
| 2006 | 61.6 | 3939 | 14 | 243 | |
| 2005 | 77.3 | 4951 | 32 | 294 | |
| 2004 | 86.9 | 5153 | 35 | 275 | |
| 2003 | 73.4 | 4573 | 29 | 258 |
Current NFL Futures Odds
|
Team |  BetMGM |
|---|---|
| Bills | +425 Bet |
| Lions | +425 Bet |
| Eagles | +450 Bet |
| Chiefs | +550 Bet |
| Ravens | +800 Bet |
| Packers | +1300 Bet |
| Vikings | +1300 Bet |
| Steelers | +3000 Bet |
| Texans | +3500 Bet |
| Chargers | +4000 Bet |
| Rams | +4000 Bet |
| Buccaneers | +4000 Bet |
| Broncos | +5000 Bet |
| Commanders | +5000 Bet |
| Bengals | +12500 Bet |
| Seahawks | +12500 Bet |
| Cardinals | +25000 Bet |
| Falcons | +25000 Bet |
| Colts | +50000 Bet |
| Dolphins | +50000 Bet |
| Cowboys | +100000 Bet |
| Saints | +100000 Bet |
| 49ers | +100000 Bet |
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-589-9966
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days
One new customer offer/Add'l Terms
Bet Now BetMGM Ohio
NFL Betting Resources
- How to Bet on the NFL – An in-depth look at how to place bets on the NFL, including common straight bets and exotics like parlays, teasers, and props.
- NFL Betting Sites – Our list of the best NFL betting sites features licensed and legal US sportsbooks, just in time for the action on the gridiron.
- NFL Betting Odds – Current NFL odds for upcoming matchups, including the preseason and postseason. Review futures odds, the greatest all-time teams, regular-season standings, and valuable handicapping strategies.
- NFL Prop Bets – Prop bets from upcoming NFL matchups, including a complete NFL prop betting tutorial. Learn how to bet on NFL props.
- NFL Futures Odds – Odds for popular NFL Futures, like the Super Bowl, AFC and NFC conference winners, each division winner, and offensive and defensive player awards. Learn how to bet on NFL futures in minutes.
- NFL Win Total Odds – Review regular season win total lines and odds for each team. Remember to place you bet before each team’s first game of the regular season.
- NFL Game to Overtime Prop Bet – See odds for upcoming games, then review overtime game counts from recent seasons.
- NFL Safety to be Scored Prop Bet – Review odds of a safety happening in upcoming games, then bet “Yes” or “No”.
- NFL First Team to Score Prop Bet – See odds for which team will score first, then learn how to bet on this prop.
- Undefeated NFL Teams – See which teams are still undefeated in the current regular season.
- NFL Biggest Rivalries – Review the NFL’s biggest rivalries by division, catching up on each rivalry’s history and recent matchup results.
- Super Bowl Betting – The latest Super Bowl odds for every NFL team, plus a great guide to how to bet on the Super Bowl. Review how to bet Super Bowl props and recent winning teams.
- Quarterback Props – Review each quarterback’s regular season performance props. Bet over or under the sportsbook’s line.
- Running Back Props – See performance props for the league’s top running backs. Bet over or under the sportsbook’s line.
- Receiver Props – Have a look at regular season performance lines for receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, then bet over or under the sportsbook’s line.
- How to Read NFL Odds – Great for beginners: learn what the numbers for each bet mean.
- NFL Team Betting Odds – Betting odds and bonuses for each NFL team, including their Super Bowl, Conference, and Division futures, plus historical standings going back to before you were born.