Adapted from our 2019 Case Study: Can AP Preseason Rankings Predict a National Champion?
We analyzed AP (Associated Press) Preseason college football rankings from 1998 to 2019. The goal was to determine if these rankings can predict the eventual college football champion.
The following insights will be helpful for college football futures bettors. Payouts are usually higher before a season begins because sportsbooks don’t have enough data to handicap each team. Strong teams losing the first 1-2 games will also get underdog status until they start winning again.
Current College Football Championship Futures
|
Team |  BetMGM |
|---|---|
| Oregon | +350 Bet |
| Texas | +350 Bet |
| Georgia | +500 Bet |
| Ohio State | +500 Bet |
| Penn State | +625 Bet |
| Notre Dame | +800 Bet |
| Tennessee | +2500 Bet |
| Indiana | +4000 Bet |
| SMU | +4000 Bet |
| Arizona State | +5000 Bet |
| Clemson | +5000 Bet |
| Boise State | +6000 Bet |
Preseason Rank Performance – 1998 to 2019
| Ranked | Championship Wins | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | 3 | 14.29% |
| #2 or higher | 10 | 47.62% |
| #3 or higher | 11 | 52.38% |
| #4 or higher | 11 | 52.38% |
| #5 or higher | 14 | 66.67% |
| #6 or higher | 14 | 66.67% |
| #7 or higher | 15 | 71.43% |
| #8 or higher | 15 | 71.43% |
| #9 or higher | 15 | 71.43% |
| #10 or higher | 16 | 76.19% |
14.29% of preseason teams ranked #1 eventually won the National Championship. Choosing the #1 team is a bad bet. It’s only happened 3 times since 1998!
Preseason Teams Ranked #1 that Won Championship – 1998 to 2019
| Season | Rank | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | #1 | Florida State |
| 2004 | #1 | USC |
| 2017 | #1 | Alabama |
But 52.38% of teams ranked #3 or #4 or higher did win. That’s a coin flip. Still a risky bet by some measures.
A better bet? 65% of preseason teams ranked 5 or higher went on to win. Now probability is on the future bettor’s side.
Let’s dig into each rank’s performance. Some ranks perform better than others. Eliminating poor performers potentially decreases the cost of our future bet.
Most Common Rank to Win – 1998 to 2019
| Rank | Wins | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| #2 | 7 | 33.33% |
| #1 | 3 | 14.29% |
| #5 | 3 | 14.29% |
| #3 | 1 | 4.76% |
| #7 | 1 | 4.76% |
| #10 | 1 | 5.00% |
| #11 | 1 | 4.76% |
| #13 | 1 | 4.76% |
| #14 | 1 | 4.76% |
| #19 | 1 | 4.76% |
| #22 | 1 | 4.76% |
Notice #2 teams win more than double the times a #1 wins. Bad news for any #1 and good news for this season’s #2. Interestingly #5 teams have won as much as #1 teams.
No #4 ranked preseason team has ever won the Championship between 1998-2019. The last #4 to win was Florida in 1996. #4 Nebraska also did it in 1994.
Does that mean the #4 team should be removed from our 5 team futures bet? It’s not a bad idea. You’ll save money paying only for 4 teams. Check each team’s historical performance before marching off to your bookie:
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Times Top 5 Preseason Teams Won Championship – Best Records: 1998 to 2019
| Team | Won | Lost | Top 5 Seasons | WinPct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson | 2 | 1 | 3 | 66.67% |
| Alabama | 5 | 6 | 11 | 45.45% |
| Miami (FL) | 1 | 3 | 4 | 25.00% |
| Florida | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16.67% |
| LSU | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16.67% |
| USC | 1 | 6 | 7 | 14.29% |
| Texas | 1 | 7 | 8 | 12.50% |
| Florida State | 1 | 7 | 8 | 12.50% |
| Ohio State | 1 | 9 | 10 | 10.00% |
Clemson has the best record of all top 5 teams between 1998-2019, winning the National Championship 66.67% of the time. Keep a top 5 Clemson team in your futures bet!
Alabama and Miami (FL) have won 45% and 25% of the time respectively. Florida and LSU have each won once in their 6 top 5 preseason rankings appearances. These teams are less reliable.
Now let’s check the worst performers.
Times Top 5 Preseason Teams Didn’t Win Championship – Worst Records: 1998 to 2019
| Team | Won | Lost | Top 5 Seasons | WinPct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0.00% |
| Georgia | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.00% |
| Oregon | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.00% |
| Michigan | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.00% |
| Tennessee | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.00% |
| Nebraska | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.00% |
| West Virginia | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.00% |
| Wisconsin | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.00% |
| Boise State | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.00% |
| Notre Dame | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00% |
| TCU | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00% |
| Arizona | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00% |
| Michigan State | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00% |
| Auburn | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00% |
| Stanford | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00% |
| Penn State | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00% |
| Baylor | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00% |
The AP ranked the Oklahoma Sooners 10 times in the preseason top 5 between 1998-2019. Each time they failed to win the National Championship. Michigan and Oregon both appeared 4 times and never won, either. Georgia, Tennessee and Nebraska each failed 3 times. Nebraska last won in 1997. Tennessee won in 1998 ranked #10 in the preseason.
Lowest Ranked Preseason Team to Win – 1998 to 2019
| Rank | Team | Season |
|---|---|---|
| #22 | Auburn | 2010 |
Teams ranked 11 or Worse to Win – 1998 to 2019
| Rank | Team | Season |
|---|---|---|
| #22 | Auburn | 2010 |
| #19 | Oklahoma | 2000 |
| #14 | LSU | 2003 |
| #13 | Ohio State | 2002 |
| #11 | Florida State | 2013 |
BCS & College Football Playoffs Average Stats
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Average Winner's Preseaon Ranking | 6.238 |
| Average Finalist's Preseason Ranking | 13.048 |
2019-20 College Football Futures Summary Analysis
What does this mean for the 2019-20 National Championship? Which teams are investment-grade contenders?
The following table summarizes our conclusions using the statistical trends identified above.
| Team | 2019-20 Preseason Rank |
Rank Win Pct |
Historical Team Record |
Rank or higher Win Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Clemson | 1 | 14.29% | 2-1 66.67% | 14.29% |
| #2 Alabama | 2 | 33.33% | 5-6 45.45% | 47.62% |
| #3 Georgia | 3 | 4.76% | 0-3 0.00% | 52.38% |
| #4 Oklahoma | 4 | 0% | 0-1 0.00% | 52.38% |
| #5 Ohio State | 5 | 14.29% | 1-9 10.00% | 66.67% |
Our basic analysis leads to at least one important conclusion: don’t exclude Alabama! Here are some possible college football national championship future bets for the 2019-2020 season:
1. Clemson, Alabama, Georgia & Ohio State – Drop unlucky #4 Oklahoma. The Sooners have only been ranked top 5 once and have never won the National Championship when ranked top 5 in the preseason between 1998-2019.
2. Clemson, Alabama & Ohio State – Drop Georgia and Oklahoma. See above #1 why Oklahoma isn’t worth a bet. Georgia hasn’t won a championship despite 3 preseason top 5 appearances between 1998-2019. Also, only 4.76% of teams ranked #3 have won a title.
3. Clemson & Alabama – 47.62% of teams ranked 2 or higher have won the National Championship between 1998-2019. Clemson and Alabama have the best historical records of top 5 teams. Buyer beware: odds are less than a coin flip.
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Is this bet worth it?
Is the expected value of these bets positive? Not based on historical trends.
A 4-teamer with a 65% probability is still risky (#1). Remember, you must divide your wager among 4 teams such that you make a profit if any of them wins. Try playing with an arbitrage calculator. You’ll get a rough idea about how much to bet on each team.
Don’t use arbitrage unless you cover all possibilities
Caution: Arbitrage assumes a fixed number of possibilities. In this case, there are more than 4 teams that could win. These 4 are only the most probable. There’s a 35% chance any other team wins. That means you would lose your entire investment.
If one of the 4 wins, you’ll make a small percentage gain. But if none win you’ll lose 100% of your investment. Futures bets are generally risky unless you can find arbitrage opportunities among small sets of teams, like NFL division futures. Read more futures bets.
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Tables and Reference
College Football Playoff Results 2014-Present
| Season | Winner | Loser | Score | Site |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | #1 Michigan Big Ten Champions | #2 Washington Pac-12 Champions | 34-13 | NRG Stadium Houston, Texas January 8, 2024 |
| 2022 | #1 Georgia SEC Champions | #3 TCU Big 12 Runner-up | 65-7 | SoFi Stadium Inglewood, California January 9, 2023 |
| 2021 | #3 Georgia SEC Runner-up | #1 Alabama SEC Champions | 33-18 | Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis, Indiana January 10, 2022 |
| 2020 | #1 Alabama SEC Champions | #3 Ohio State Big 10 Champions | 52-24 | Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida January 11, 2021 |
| 2019 | #1 LSU SEC Champions | #3 Clemson ACC Champions | 42-25 | Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana January 13, 2020 |
| 2018 | #2 Clemson ACC Champions | #1 Alabama SEC Champions | 44-16 | Levi's Stadium
Santa Clara, California January 7, 2019 |
| 2017 | #4 Alabama
SEC West Co-Champions | #3 Georgia
SEC Champions | 26-23 OT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, Georgia January 8, 2018 |
| 2016 | #2 Clemson ACC Champions | #1 Alabama
SEC Champions | 35-31 | Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Florida January 9, 2017 |
| 2015 | #2 Alabama SEC Champions | #1 Clemson ACC Champions | 45-40 | University of Phoenix Stadium Glendale, Arizona January 11, 2016 |
| 2014 | #4 Ohio State Big Ten Champions | #2 Oregon Pac-12 Champions | 42-20 | AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas January 12, 2015 |
BCS National Championship Results
| Season | Winner | Loser | Score | Site |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | #1 Florida State
ACC Champs | #2 Auburn
SEC Champs | 34-31 | Rose Bowl
Pasadena, California January 6, 2014 |
| 2012 | #2 Alabama
SEC Champs | #1 Notre Dame
Independent | 42-14 | Sun Life Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida January 7, 2013 |
| 2011 | #2 Alabama
At-large | #1 LSU
SEC Champs | 21-0 | Mercedes-Benz Superdome New Orleans, Louisiana January 9, 2012 |
| 2010 | #1 Auburn
SEC Champs | #2 Oregon Pac-10 Champs | 22-19 | University of Phoenix Stadium Glendale, Arizona January 10, 2011 |
| 2009 | #1 Alabama
SEC Champs | #2 Texas
Big 12 Champs | 37-21 | Rose Bowl
Pasadena, California January 7, 2010 |
| 2008 | #2 Florida
SEC Champs | #1 Oklahoma
Big 12 Champs | 24-14 | Dolphin Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida January 8, 2009 |
| 2007 | #2 LSU
SEC Champs | #1 Ohio State
Big Ten Champs | 38-24 | Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans January 7, 2008 |
| 2006 | #2 Florida
SEC Champs | #1 Ohio State
Big Ten Champs | 41-14 | University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona January 8, 2007 |
| 2005 | #2 Texas
Big 12 Champs | #1 USC
Pac-10 Champs | 41-38 | Rose Bowl Stadium
Pasadena, California January 4, 2006 |
| 2004 | #1 USC Pac-10 Champs | #2 Oklahoma
Big 12 Champs | 55-19 | Pro Player Stadium Miami Gardens, Florida January 4, 2005 |
| 2003 | #2 LSU SEC Champs | #1 Oklahoma
At-large | 21-14 | Louisiana Superdome New Orleans January 4, 2004 |
| 2002 | #2 Ohio State
Big Ten Co-Champs | #1 Miami (FL) Big East Champs | 31-24 | Sun Devil Stadium
Tempe, Arizona January 3, 2003 |
| 2001 | #1 Miami (FL) Big East Champs | #2 Nebraska At-large | 37-14 | Rose Bowl
Pasadena, California January 3, 2002 |
| 2000 | #1 Oklahoma Big 12 Champs | #2 Florida State
ACC Champs | 13-2 | Pro Player Stadium
Miami January 3, 2001 |
| 1999 | #1 Florida State
ACC Champs | #2 Virginia Tech Big East Champs | 46-29 | Louisiana Superdome New Orleans January 4, 2000 |
| 1998 | #1 Tennessee
SEC Champs | #2 Florida State ACC Co-Champs | 23-16 | Sun Devil Stadium
Tempe, Arizona January 4, 1999 |
College Football Betting Resources
- College Football Betting Guide – Read up on how to bet your favorite teams this football season, reviewing the most common ways to bet on college football, plus season win totals, standings, and in-depth research.
- College Football Betting Sites – Our top licensed and legal US sports betting sites for college football.
- College Football Odds – Latest point spreads, totals, and moneylines for upcoming college football matchups and more.
- College Football Prop Bets – Prop betting lines and odds for upcoming College football games.
- College Football First Team to Score prop bet – See odds for which team will score first in the next schedule NCAA football games.
- College Football Futures Odds – Learn more about how to bet on college football futures. Review odds to win the National Championship and key D1 college football conferences like the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12, plus odds to win the Heisman Trophy.
- College Football Win Total Odds – Our tutorial explains how to bet on college football win totals, plus links to team win totals grouped by conference.
- College Football Game to Overtime Prop Bet – See odds for upcoming games, then review overtime game counts from recent seasons.
- Undefeated College Football Teams – See which teams are still undefeated in the current regular season.
- College Football Betting Tips – Quick tips and essential knowledge for those looking to up their college football betting game.
- College Football Overtime Games – We track multiple overtime college football games from 2002 to the current season. See the longest overtime games in NCAA football history.
- College Football Championship Results – Review recent College Football Championship winners, appearances, results, including from the BCS era.
- Can the AP Preseason Poll Predict a Winner? – Our classic case study looks at the AP preseason college football poll’s potential to predict an eventual national champion.