MLB Weekend winners examines three games that bettors should target. After a break, this is the return of it.
Let’s discuss the three easiest games on Saturday!
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Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
This is fairly simple, the Astros are the second best team in the league, and the Athletics are the worst.
Statistically, Oakland sits last in team batting average (BA) and on-base percentage (OBP). Also, its’ earned run average (ERA) hovers over four runs a game.
While Houston is average when it comes to team BA and team OBP, the pitching puts them at the top of the league in ERA.
The run-line record for the Astros is one of the best with a cover percent of near 54, and as an away team that increases to almost 56 percent. Overall, Oakland is below .500 in run-line record and as the home team it is the worst in the league.
The Astros seem on a role too with a respectable six game winning streak recently.
With this information, obviously favor the Astros by more than two runs. The Athletics will not cover the spread. Both sides of the over/under make sense, but the over feels more appealing.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Brandon Woodruff may pitch this game for the Brewers because he pitched Sunday, and there are five games between that time. This makes it a lot easier to target because Woodruff is arguably one of the top 10, top 15 pitchers in the league.
If not, this is still an easy target because Pittsburgh is one of the worst offenses, and Milwaukee is one of the better pitching teams.
That being said the Brewers offense regarding team BA and team OBP are around league average, maybe a bit below. Milwaukee just decimated Pittsburgh in a weekend series that saw the brew crew score 19 runs in one game.
Run line records for Milwaukee on the road have it around a 47 percent, and Pittsburgh as the home team hover around 46 percent in terms of covering.
Don’t expect a 19-run outpour, but expect a W from Milwaukee, bet under on runs, especially if Woodruff is on the bump. If the cover gives Pittsburgh two, then yes.
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
The starting five for LA are perhaps the best in baseball, at least playing like it. Thanks to Tyler Anderson and Tony Gonsolin having amazing years.
Chicago’s, team BA and team OBP are some of the best in the league, but it sits behind Los Angeles. Team ERA for the Dodgers rank it in the top five in that category. The difference is Chicago’s team ERA is one of the worst in MLB, and that will be how Los Angeles seizes the W.
Whatever Chicago can do, Los Angeles can do better.
The Dodgers run-line record at home is one of the best with a cover rate close to 56 percent. The Cubs away run-line record is close to 57 percent.
Bet the Dodgers, bet the cover, and over on runs feels like the better choice.