It is almost time for the best tournament of the year: the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. The 68-team showdown will begin with the First Four on March 15 and 16 and the culmination of the tournament will be at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans in early April.
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The favorites to win the 2022 edition of the tournament are the 23-2 Gonzaga Bulldogs (+350). According to Vegas, the Bulldogs are accompanied at the top by two squads that have Wildcats as mascots: Kentucky (+750) and Arizona (+900). The Auburn Tigers (+900) were in as the second No. 1 seed prior to their contests on Saturday at Florida:
The current #MarchMadness Top 16 seeds! ?
1. Gonzaga
2. Auburn
3. Arizona
4. Kansas
5. Baylor
6. Kentucky
7. Purdue
8. Duke
9. Villanova
10. Texas Tech
11. Tennessee
12. Illinois
13. Wisconsin
14. UCLA
15. Providence
16. Texas#BracketPreview pic.twitter.com/VGznafe71y— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 19, 2022
Unfortunately for Auburn fans, their Tigers fell to No. 3 in the polls. After a 19-game winning streak, Auburn lost twice in a four-game stretch. The Tigers lost at Arkansas and Florida by a combined five points.
The Duke Blue Devils (+1200), who held the No. 1 spot in the polls briefly in November, have yet to put together a winning streak longer than seven games thus far this season. They have three straight road games from February 23 to March 1, which should help prepare them for the ACC Tournament. They are fighting for that fourth No. 1 seed in Mike Krzyzewski’s final season.
However, Purdue (+1050), Kansas (+1500), and the defending champion Baylor Bears (+1400) are also fighting with the Blue Devils for that fourth No. 1 seed. So, at this time, which teams have the best value as we venture into the conference tournaments?
Which Teams Have the Best Value at Winning the National Title?
Let us start with the Bears, who were No. 1 in the polls from mid-December to mid-January. They fell off in a big way with consecutive home losses on January 11 (to No. 19 Texas Tech) and January 15 (to Oklahoma State). Since then, there have been three Baylor road losses, including another one at the hands of Texas Tech, with the Red Raiders being No. 11 at that time. The Baylor Bears have the fourth-best efficiency margin, according to Ken Pomeroy’s 2022 ratings. Therefore, they have great value at +1200.
So, other than the defending champs, who should you take a look at? The Houston Cougars (+3200) are definitely the way to go, as they have the seventh-best best Pomeroy rating. Both of their offensive and defensive ratings are in the top 15, and the only other teams that can say that are Gonzaga, Arizona, and UCLA. Maybe two of those four teams will meet in the national championship.